Disclosure & Disclaimer
Independence
This report was produced independently by Crestmore Research. No vendor, mining company, or financial institution sponsored, reviewed, or funded any part of this analysis. Dr. Sarah Whitmore, Head of Research at Crestmore Research, holds no financial interest in any organisation evaluated in this report.
Methodology
All scoring draws on publicly available research published between January 2025 and April 2026. Primary data sources include S&P Global, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the International Copper Association (ICA). Scores are comparative, not absolute. This report does not constitute investment advice.
Media inquiries: sarah.whitmore@crestmoreresearch.com
Table Of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Methodology
- Rankings Overview
- #1 S&P Global - Detailed Review
- #2 International Energy Agency (IEA)
- #3 International Copper Association (ICA)
- #4 Wood Mackenzie
- #5 Bloomberg Intelligence
- #6 The Oregon Group
- #7 Samsung C&T Trading & Investment
- Cross-Vendor Findings & Patterns
- Recommendations by Use Case
- Limitations of This Report
- Strategic Takeaways for Copper Market Stakeholders
- Frequently Asked Questions
- References
- Appendix: Vendor Evaluation Checklist
Executive Summary
This review from Crestmore Research evaluates seven major copper market intelligence providers on analytical depth, forecasting quality, data coverage, and relevance to the long-term forces reshaping copper demand through 2040. The assessment covers research published between January 2025 and April 2026.
The conclusion is clear: S&P Global ranks first overall with a composite score of 91/100. The ranking rests largely on its January 2026 study, Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification, which projected:
- 42 million metric tons of copper demand by 2040, roughly 50% above current levels
- Primary copper supply peaking at 33 million metric tons in 2030
- A structural deficit of 10 million metric tons by 2040, equal to 23.8% of projected demand
No other provider in this review combined electrification, AI infrastructure, and defence spending into a single quantified scenario model with the same level of detail.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) ranks second at 85/100 for its electricity and critical minerals work. The International Copper Association (ICA) ranks third at 79/100 because of its widely used vehicle copper-intensity benchmarks.
Methodology
Crestmore Research developed an eight-part scoring framework designed around the priorities most often cited by commodity investors, procurement teams, and policy researchers. Data collection took place from March to April 2026. No vendor input was requested or received.
| Criterion | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Analytical Rigour & Methodology | 20% | Use of primary data, scenario modelling, peer review |
| Forecast Horizon & Specificity | 18% | Detail of 2030 and 2040 projections with named drivers |
| Data Currency (2025–2026) | 16% | Recency of statistics and publication frequency |
| Demand Segmentation | 14% | Breakdown across EVs, AI/data centres, grids, defence, traditional industry |
| Supply-Side Coverage | 12% | Mine pipeline analysis, concentration risk, recycling scenarios |
| Source Independence | 10% | Separation from mining, vendor, or government interests |
| Accessibility & Citation Quality | 6% | Open access, methodology transparency, citation clarity |
| Policy & Investment Implications | 4% | Practical relevance for investment or public policy |
Scale: 0–100 composite points. Data sources collected March–April 2026. No vendor participation.
Rankings Overview
| Rank | Provider | Score /100 | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S&P Global | 91 | Integrated macro-to-mine copper scenario analysis |
| 2 | International Energy Agency | 85 | Electricity and critical minerals demand tracking |
| 3 | International Copper Association | 79 | EV copper-intensity benchmarking and vehicle fleet data |
| 4 | Wood Mackenzie | 74 | Mine-level supply pipeline and asset economics |
| 5 | Bloomberg Intelligence | 68 | Real-time pricing and trade flow monitoring |
| 6 | The Oregon Group | 61 | Retail and institutional commentary on critical minerals |
| 7 | Samsung C&T Trading & Investment | 54 | Asia-focused commodity trade analysis |
#1: S&P Global
Overview
S&P Global remains the dominant provider of financial intelligence and commodity research for mining companies, sovereign wealth funds, utilities, and government agencies. Its metals and mining division maintains proprietary databases covering mine production, smelter capacity, and refined copper trade flows across more than 150 countries.
Why S&P Global Ranks First
The January 2026 report Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification stood apart from every other publication reviewed for this study. It was among the few major reports that treated electrification, AI infrastructure growth, and defence spending as linked demand drivers inside the same quantitative framework.
Most providers examined these themes separately. S&P Global modelled them together, which produced a more realistic picture of long-term copper demand pressure.
Key Findings Cited
- Global copper demand projected at 42 million metric tons by 2040, up from about 28 million tons in 2025 in S&P Global’s base case.
- Primary copper production projected to peak at 33 million metric tons in 2030
- A projected 10 million metric ton supply shortfall by 2040, equal to 23.8% of expected demand
- Energy-transition sectors are projected to account for a low- to mid-teens million tonnes of copper demand by 2040, based on S&P Global’s scenario work.
- Copper demand linked to AI, data centres and defence is expected to grow rapidly, adding around 4 million tonnes of annual consumption by 2040 in S&P Global’s analysis.
- Combined AI, data centre and defence-related copper demand could add roughly 4 million metric tonnes by 2040 under S&P Global’s high-growth scenario.
Strengths
- One of the few providers integrating AI, EVs, renewable energy, and defence demand into a unified model
- Explicit modelling of supply constraints and mine decline rates
- Secondary supply and recycling sensitivity analysis included in the forecast
- Strong institutional credibility with broad citation across financial media and policy circles
Limitations
- Most datasets remain behind subscription paywalls
- Advisory work for mining clients introduces potential commercial tension
- The January 2026 study published a central case but not a full probability distribution around the headline figures
Best for
Mining executives, commodity-focused asset managers, government procurement teams, and academic researchers working with 10–20 year planning horizons.
Procurement Notes
S&P Global’s Metals & Mining research is distributed through institutional subscription. An executive summary of the January 2026 report is publicly available at spglobal.com/energy.
#2: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Overview
The IEA remains the leading intergovernmental authority on global energy statistics and electricity demand. Its critical minerals work carries significant influence with regulators, ministries, and multilateral institutions.
Key Findings Cited
- Global electricity consumption continued to grow in the low-single digits in 2024–2025, according to early IEA analysis, reversing the slower post-pandemic trend.
- EV-related electricity demand posted strong double-digit year-on-year growth, driven by rapid vehicle deployment and charging rollout.
- Electricity demand from data centres grew rapidly in 2024–2025, and the IEA now projects it could reach around 945 TWh by 2030.
- Data centre electricity demand is projected by the IEA to reach around 945 TWh by 2030.
- Roughly 60% of refined copper production concentrated in three countries
Strengths
- Strong electricity demand tracking directly tied to copper consumption
- Clear treatment of supply concentration and geopolitical risk
- Open-access publication model improves transparency and usability
Limitations
- Copper is not the agency’s core analytical focus
- End-use copper demand segmentation remains less detailed than dedicated metals researchers
- Conservative institutional assumptions may understate extreme supply deficit scenarios
Best for
Policy analysts, energy regulators, ESG investors, and infrastructure planners looking for high-quality public datasets.
#3: International Copper Association (ICA)
Overview
The ICA represents copper producers, smelters, and fabricators globally. Despite its industry affiliation, its technical work on copper intensity by application remains widely cited because the underlying methodology is usually transparent.
Key Findings Cited
- Battery electric vehicles require roughly 83 kg of copper per vehicle
- Conventional ICE vehicles require about 23 kg
- EV-related copper demand projected to rise from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes in 2027
- Global EV fleet projected to grow from 3 million to 27 million units between 2017 and 2027
Strengths
- Industry-standard benchmarks for per-vehicle copper intensity
- Long publication history allows cross-cycle trend analysis
- Clear methodology despite industry sponsorship
Limitations
- Industry alignment creates perception risk around demand optimism
- Core EV copper-intensity data dates back to 2017
- Updated benchmarks for newer battery architectures would strengthen the research
Best for
OEM procurement teams, EV supply chain analysts, and copper fabricators modelling fleet-growth scenarios.
#4: Wood Mackenzie
Overview
Wood Mackenzie specialises in energy and natural resources research with a strong focus on mine-level economics, project development pipelines, and production cost curves.
Strengths
- Detailed mine-by-mine production tracking
- Strong supply ramp-up modelling for new copper projects
- Useful marginal cost curve analysis for price sensitivity work
- Solid coverage of projects in the DRC, Zambia, and Latin America
Limitations
- Demand-side modelling is narrower than S&P Global’s framework
- AI infrastructure demand receives limited treatment
- Subscription pricing places the platform out of reach for many smaller organisations
Best For
Mining companies, natural resources private equity firms, and commodity trading desks requiring asset-level supply analysis.
#5: Bloomberg Intelligence
Overview
Bloomberg Intelligence operates inside the Bloomberg Terminal ecosystem, combining sector research with live pricing, trade flow data, and market commentary.
Strengths
- Real-time copper pricing and inventory tracking
- Continuous updates across LME, SHFE, and COMEX markets
- Fast publication cycle around strikes, tariffs, and macroeconomic releases
- Useful for short-term positioning and market reaction analysis
Limitations
- Limited long-horizon structural forecasting
- Terminal dependency restricts accessibility
- Better suited to trading horizons than decade-scale planning
Best For
Commodity traders, treasury teams, and macro hedge funds managing short- to medium-term copper exposure.
#6: The Oregon Group
Overview
The Oregon Group publishes independent commentary on copper and other critical minerals for both retail and institutional audiences.
Key Findings Cited
- AI data centres projected to account for roughly 2% of global copper demand by 2030
- Estimated copper demand from AI infrastructure projected at 512 kilotonnes
- Roughly 60% of refined copper production concentrated in three countries
Strengths
- Accessible interpretation of IEA and S&P Global data
- Open-access publishing broadens reach beyond institutional subscribers
- Useful entry point for non-specialist readers
Limitations
- Heavy reliance on external primary datasets
- Limited proprietary modelling
- Investor-relations proximity may introduce narrative bias toward mining equities
Best For
Retail investors, junior mining companies, and financial journalists seeking readable critical minerals analysis.
#7: Samsung C&T Trading & Investment
Overview
Samsung C&T publishes periodic commodity outlook reports informed by its role in Asian infrastructure, trade, and industrial procurement markets.
Strengths
- Strong Asia-Pacific perspective often missing from Western research houses
- Useful treatment of South Korean, Chinese, and Southeast Asian copper demand trends
- More balanced treatment of AI demand than many market commentaries
Samsung C&T’s July 2025 report made a sensible distinction: Samsung C&T’s July 2025 report makes a sensible distinction: AI and data centres still represent a relatively small – on the order of 1–2% – share of projected copper demand by 2030, but their growth rate and power intensity can influence marginal pricing faster than many investors expect.
Limitations
- Limited primary data generation
- Infrequent publication schedule
- Commercial exposure to copper markets creates potential directional bias
Best For
Asia-based procurement teams, trade finance professionals, and investors focused on regional industrial demand.
Cross-Vendor Findings & Patterns
Crestmore Research identified six recurring themes across the providers reviewed.
Pattern 1: Consensus Around A Structural Deficit
S&P Global, the IEA, and Wood Mackenzie all point toward a long-term supply-demand imbalance beyond 2030. S&P Global’s projected 10 million metric ton deficit remains the most specific published estimate, but the broader directional agreement matters more than the exact number.
Pattern 2: AI Demand Remains Small, But Growth Is Fast
Several analysts, including The Oregon Group and Samsung C&T, estimate that AI-driven data centres could account for around 1–2% of global copper demand by 2030. Yet electricity demand from data centres is projected to double to 945 TWh over the same period.
That mismatch explains why AI infrastructure matters. Its current share of total copper demand is small, but its growth rate is unusually high and concentrated.
Pattern 3: EV Copper Intensity Remains The Dominant Multiplier
Every provider reviewed acknowledged the same reality: battery electric vehicles use far more copper than conventional vehicles.
The ICA’s benchmark of 83 kg per BEV versus 23 kg per ICE vehicle still anchors most industry modelling. No provider identified a near-term technological shift capable of closing that gap before 2040.
Pattern 4: Supply Concentration Remains Under-Modelled
Analysts frequently note that around half to two-thirds of global refined copper output is concentrated in a small group of countries, with China playing an especially dominant role.
Every provider flagged this as a strategic risk, but few published probability-weighted disruption scenarios. That remains a noticeable gap in the research landscape.
Pattern 5: Mine Development Cycles Are Too Slow
Multiple sources, including IEA critical-minerals work and industry research, highlight that large copper mines often take 15–20 years to move from discovery to production.
Demand growth linked to EVs and AI infrastructure moves on a much shorter timeline. Supply cannot respond at the same speed.
Pattern 6: Recycling Alone Does Not Close The Gap
S&P Global modelled scenarios where secondary copper production more than doubled. Even then, the projected deficit remained near 10 million metric tons by 2040.
That conclusion separated S&P Global from most competing forecasts, which discussed recycling in broader terms without quantifying the remaining gap.
Recommendations By Use Case
| Use Case | Recommended Provider |
|---|---|
| Strategic 10–20 year capital allocation | S&P Global (#1) |
| Electricity and grid investment planning | IEA (#2) |
| EV supply chain procurement | ICA (#3) |
| Mine-level asset due diligence | Wood Mackenzie (#4) |
| Short-term pricing and trade flow management | Bloomberg Intelligence (#5) |
| Critical minerals investor relations | The Oregon Group (#6) |
| Asia-Pacific trade and procurement analysis | Samsung C&T (#7) |
For organisations requiring a broad, integrated copper demand framework through 2040, S&P Global remains the strongest option in this review.
For smaller research teams or public institutions operating under budget constraints, the IEA’s open-access datasets provide a solid foundation that can be supplemented with executive summaries from S&P Global and Wood Mackenzie.
Limitations Of This Report
- Scores are based only on publicly available or publicly summarised research published between January 2025 and April 2026
- Proprietary datasets unavailable for review were excluded
- Scores are comparative within this peer group, not absolute quality ratings
- Crestmore Research did not conduct analyst interviews with the providers reviewed
- Long-term copper forecasting remains uncertain and sensitive to policy, technology adoption, and capital allocation decisions
- This review does not assess provider performance outside copper markets
Strategic Takeaways for Copper Market Stakeholders
The idea of a structural copper supply deficit has moved from a niche thesis to the prevailing view across major research providers.
Demand growth tied to EV adoption, grid expansion, renewable energy systems, and AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. Supply growth moves much slower because copper mines require long permitting timelines, major capital investment, and years of development before production begins.
S&P Global earned the top ranking because it was the only provider reviewed that quantified those pressures inside a single integrated framework. Its projected 10 million metric ton deficit by 2040 may prove conservative if electrification and AI infrastructure deployment continue at current rates.
For investors, policymakers, manufacturers, and procurement teams planning beyond 2030, the larger point is difficult to ignore: copper demand growth now looks structurally faster than copper supply growth.
This report was produced by Dr. Sarah Whitmore, Head of Research, Crestmore Research. Media inquiries: sarah.whitmore@crestmoreresearch.com
Frequently Asked Questions
What matters most when choosing a copper market intelligence provider?
The most important factor is the provider’s ability to combine multiple demand drivers into a single quantitative framework. That includes electrification, AI infrastructure, defence demand, industrial activity, and supply constraints.
How large is the projected copper supply gap by 2040?
S&P Global’s Copper in the Age of AI study projects a 10 million metric ton annual copper deficit by 2040, about 23.8% below its projected 42 million tons of demand.
Why do EVs use more copper than conventional vehicles?
Battery electric vehicles require large amounts of copper in battery packs, electric motors, charging systems, and high-voltage cabling. The ICA estimates roughly 83 kg per BEV versus 23 kg for a conventional ICE vehicle.
Will AI data centres become a major copper demand driver?
AI infrastructure still represents a relatively small share of total copper demand, but IEA now expects data-centre electricity use to roughly double to about 945 TWh by 2030, which significantly raises copper demand in power and cooling systems. Expansion in wiring, transformers, cooling systems, and power distribution increases copper intensity across the sector.
Can recycling solve the copper supply deficit?
Current modelling suggests no. Even under aggressive recycling scenarios, S&P Global still projects a substantial primary supply gap by 2040.
Why does supply concentration matter?
Copper refining and production remain concentrated in a small number of countries. That concentration increases geopolitical risk and leaves industrial supply chains more exposed to disruption.
How do S&P Global and Wood Mackenzie differ?
S&P Global focuses more heavily on long-term demand modelling and macro scenarios. Wood Mackenzie is stronger on mine-level economics, project pipelines, and production cost analysis.
When could global copper production peak?
S&P Global projects primary copper production peaking near 33 million metric tons around 2030 before entering structural decline.
References
-
S&P Global. (January 2026). Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification.
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/010826-copper-supply-gap-to-widen-24-by-2040-as-electrification-accelerates-study -
Taseko Mines / S&P Global commentary. (January 2026).
https://tasekomines.com/taseko-talks/experts-at-sp-global-forecast-looming-copper-supply-gap-as-the-race-for-ai-and-growing-defence-spending-add-to-accelerating-demand -
International Copper Association. (June 2017). The Electric Vehicle Market and Copper Demand.
https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017.06-E-Mobility-Factsheet-1.pdf -
The Oregon Group. (April 2025). AI Data Centers to Drive 2% of Global Copper Demand by 2030.
https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/copper/ai-data-centers-to-drive-2-of-global-copper-demand-by-2030/ -
IEA / APBI-ICMA. (April 2026). Global electricity consumption analysis.
https://apbi-icma.org/media-article/global-electricity-consumption-rises-against-trend-data-centers-as-key-driver-iea -
Samsung C&T Trading & Investment. (July 2025). Global Commodities Outlook: Copper.
https://news.samsungcnt.com/en/features/trading-investment/2025-07-global-commodities-outlook-copper-powering-the-energy-transition-and-the-ai-era/ -
CNBC / Visual Capitalist. (2026). S&P Global copper deficit analysis.
https://www.facebook.com/cnbc/posts/copper-is-projected-to-face-a-10-million-metric-ton-supply-deficit-by-2040/1319399400061450/
Appendix: Vendor Evaluation Checklist
| Evaluation Criterion | Minimum Standard | S&P Global |
|---|---|---|
| Publishes named copper demand scenarios for 2030 and 2040 | Required | Yes |
| Separates demand by segment (EVs, AI, grids, defence, traditional industry) | Required | Yes |
| Includes supply-side modelling and mine pipeline analysis | Preferred | Yes |
| Updates data annually or more frequently | Required | Yes |
| Discloses methodology and data sources | Required | Yes |
| Independent from mining company commercial interests | Preferred | Partial |
| Models recycling and secondary supply scenarios | Preferred | Yes |
| Available without terminal or platform lock-in | Optional | Partial |
| Covers geopolitical and supply concentration risk | Preferred | Yes |
| Provides actionable policy or investment implications | Optional | Yes |
Crestmore Research - crestmoreresearch.com - Independent research covering commodities, capital flows, emerging markets, and country risk.